Introduction

There is a strange tension running through climate policy in 2026. The head of the UN Environment Programme looked at the world's latest national climate plans and concluded they had "barely moved the needle." The Global Carbon Project reported that fossil-fuel emissions hit a record high in 2025. And the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is now measured in single digits of years.

“There is a strange tension running through climate policy in 2026.”

And yet — for the first time in the UNFCCC's accounting — the global emissions curve is starting to bend downwards. COP30's new pledges narrowed the projected warming gap, the synthesis of new national climate plans shows emissions peaking before 2030 for a large group of countries, and temperature projections have fallen steadily since the Paris Agreement was signed.

Both things are true at once. Here's the data on where climate policy actually stands, a year after the Belém summit.

The Emissions Gap Is Closing — Slowly

The clearest measure of progress is the projected warming trajectory. When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, the world was on track for roughly 3–3.5°C of warming. A decade later, that number has fallen to 2.8°C under current policies and 2.3–2.5°C if countries fully implement their latest climate plans.

That improvement is real but fragile. UNEP is careful to note that methodological updates account for about 0.1°C of the apparent progress, and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement cancels out another 0.1°C. Strip those out, and the new NDCs themselves barely moved the projections.

Emissions Are Still at a Record High

The uncomfortable counterpoint to the improving projections: the actual emissions curve is still rising. Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions grew 1.1% in 2025 to a record 38.1 billion tonnes — the third consecutive record — even as the growth rate has slowed sharply. Total CO₂ emissions (including land use) were effectively flat, tying 2024 as the highest on record.

The good news hidden in these numbers is the trajectory of growth. Global fossil CO₂ emissions grew 0.8% per year over the past decade, down from 2.1% in the decade before. That deceleration — driven by coal-to-gas switching and the renewables boom — is what gives policymakers any room to claim the peak may be near.

The Gap to 2035: Ambition vs. Science

Where the gap is most visible is the 2035 target. The UNFCCC's synthesis of the new NDCs (the "NDC 3.0" round) found that fully implementing all new pledges would cut emissions by roughly 19–24% below 2019 levels by 2035. Current policies alone would cut just 9%. But the science says we need 35% (for 2°C) or 55% (for 1.5°C).

The gap between ambition and science is enormous — and the gap between stated ambition and implementation is a problem of its own. UNEP identifies an "implementation gap" of roughly 5–7 GtCO₂e by 2030, meaning countries aren't even on track to hit their own targets, let alone what the science demands.

Running Out of Carbon Budget

Perhaps the starkest framing comes from the carbon budget. The Global Carbon Project estimates that to have a reasonable chance of staying under 1.5°C, the world can emit only about 170 GtCO₂ more — at current rates, that is four years of emissions. The 2°C budget buys roughly 25 years.

This is why the "implementation COP" framing of Belém mattered. Every fraction of a degree avoided means lower losses, lower costs, and less reliance on speculative carbon-dioxide-removal technologies to claw warming back down later.

What COP30 Actually Delivered

The Belém summit (COP30, November 2025) adopted 56 decisions by consensus — a genuine achievement given the geopolitical backdrop. The headline "Global Mutirão" decision launched a Global Implementation Accelerator and a Belém Mission to 1.5°C, focused not on new targets but on actually delivering the ones already on the books.

On finance, COP30 formally recognized the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to mobilize US$1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing countries by 2035, and agreed to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035. Notably, for the first time, parties agreed to a three-year dialogue on climate and trade — a signal that the politics of trade measures (carbon border adjustments and the like) are now firmly on the table.

The next milestone is COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, in late 2026, and the second Global Stocktake running through 2028.

The Bottom Line

Climate policy in 2026 is a study in contradiction. The direction of travel has genuinely improved — temperature projections are down a full degree from pre-Paris, the NDC 3.0 round shows emissions peaking before 2030 for a large share of the world, and finance architecture is finally being built. But the level of ambition still falls short of what the science requires by a factor of two to three, and actual emissions are still setting records.

The curve is bending. The question is whether it bends fast enough — and the carbon budget says we have roughly four years of current emissions to decide.

Sources

  • UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 ("Off Target"), November 2025 — warming projections (2.8°C current policies, 2.3–2.5°C full NDC), 2035 cuts needed (35%/55%), implementation gap (5–7 GtCO₂e), US withdrawal effect (+2 GtCO₂e).
  • UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report 2025, 28 October 2025 + update 10 November 2025 — 64 NDCs covering ~30% of global emissions; aggregate 2035 level ~13.0 GtCO₂e (6% below prior 2030 projection, 17% below 2019); peaking before 2030; 89% economy-wide targets.
  • Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Friedlingstein et al., Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3211–3288, 2026) — 38.1 GtCO₂ fossil (record, +1.1%), flat total at 42.2 GtCO₂; remaining budgets 170 GtCO₂ (1.5°C, ~4 yrs), 525 GtCO₂ (1.7°C, 12 yrs), 1,055 GtCO₂ (2°C, 25 yrs); atmospheric CO₂ 425.7 ppm.
  • UNFCCC COP30 outcomes (Belém, 10–25 November 2025) — 56 decisions, Global Mutirão decision, Global Implementation Accelerator, Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to US$1.3T, tripling adaptation finance by 2035.
  • COP30 Presidency Executive Report, 19 March 2026 — implementation roadmap for the inter-sessional period.
  • Carbon Brief (Nov 2025) — analysis of UNEP EGR 2025 and Global Carbon Budget 2025.
  • World Resources Institute — progress toward the $1.3 trillion climate finance goal.